New Technology is Ushering in the Dystopian Future of Drone on Drone Warfare by Steve Balestrieri Sep 12, 2020 Share This: ... saw a different use for their technology. As 2020 draws to a close, four years of intensive development and testing is about to culminate in a breakthrough which will remove Royal Navy personnel from the supremely dangerous task of mine clearance. Safe funding mechanisms are also essential for protecting start-ups and ensuring that capital supply chains are free from foreign influence. At the same time, to deny or dismiss the role of technology in effecting the outcome (as well as outbreak) of war and conflict is also perilous. How we will maintain our values while we develop new technologies is a critical question to consider. In a hyper war environment, public-private partnerships are essential. Laser weapons. . ²Reuters, “Putin Promotes Nanotechnology in Russia,” 18 April 2007. There is a need to think strategically beyond current challenges. NATO and national governments with similar values need to ensure that their standards become the global standards of AI. Future of warfare: new tech helps better detect drones It’s been called ‘the future of warfare’. The Roman empire, perhaps the greatest military power in history, knew this very well. By the way, there are two spelling mistakes in this article. Errors in AI are very difficult to understand and improve, and Machine Learning systems can only be as good as their hypothetical data. Technology. Excessive trust in AI is extremely dangerous, especially in a military setting, which is why the technology should be implemented incrementally and carefully. Then disaster struck. Conversation with General John R. Allen & Ambassador Baiba Braže: Preparing for Still-Emerging Technologies In Geoană’s words, NATO wants to seize the opportunities that technology offers and find solutions for our most pressing challenges. Like the fighter plane shortly before it, the tank proved itself to be a necessity for the future of mechanized warfare… In the late twentieth and early twenty-first century, the nation has struggled – and continues to do so – to deal with the proliferation challenges of new technologically-enabled weapons. We should not rush into way-ahead-of-its-time programs like the visionary but ill-fated Future Combat System. … The EU and NATO are not fully up-to-speed on this issue and need to restructure and co-ordinate their responses. It speaks to us from the past, but whispers very softly. Technology and Warfare The Strategic Technologies Program will examine the nexus between technologies with defense applications and emerging challenges to combat effectiveness. The U.S. Army, recognizing future technological threats, established the Army Futures Command (AFC) in 2018. The novel scientific principles that underlie the character of these uncertain technologies and their convergence with political and social institutions reveal conceptual and empirical confusion associated with assessing the national security implications. Now in its second printing, it continues to be in great demand among readers both at home and abroad. However, governments, learn from venture capital in particular, including from innovative purchasing strategies like. Globalization and the information revolution, including the Internet and other communication leaps – have led to much greater visibility into the availability and potential for science and technology. Conceptually, technologies can be seen as evolutionarily advancing current capabilities or those pressing to the ‘bleeding edge’ that enable disruptive, revolutionary capabilities developments. Increased collaboration is needed to address hybrid threats & emerging technologies, including formulating legal frameworks to deal with these threats. Scientists recruited by the government have been developing some pretty crazy technology. A critical piece of the future of networked warfare is a technology already familiar to many consumers and hobbyists: small drones. The majority of venture capital worldwide originates in NATO member states, but the long-standing culture gap between governments and the private sector prevents these resources from being fully utilized. The NATO Science and Technology Organization (STO), the largest defence, science, and technology collaborative network, brings together actors from academia, industry, and the military, all of whom have different perspectives when it comes to addressing challenges posed by new and emerging technology. The Second Battle of Villers-Bretonneux on the 24th of April, 1918 marked the first tank vs tank battle when 3 German A7V tanks engaged 3 British Mark IV tanks on the battlefield. After an official welcome by GLOBSEC’s President Robert Vass, the NATO 2030: NATO-Private Sector Dialogue was opened by a keynote speech by NATO’s Deputy Secretary-General Ambassador Mircea Geoană. ¹General Robert Cone, Commander US Army TRADOC, from Mike Morones, “Interview with GEN Robert Cone,” Defense News, 16 December 2013. Save From AI to fully automated robots, what will warfare look like over the next 100 years? But, within the private sector, different industries prioritise different threats. Her research explores the relationships among technology, strategy, and governance. To meet future demands, the joint force and the U.S. Air Force should invest in more precision, information, and automation; build additional capacity; maintain a robust forward posture; and reinforce agility at all levels of warfare. NATO is committed to adjusting “the way it does business,” and the Alliance wants to maintain dialogue with industry, including with non-traditional providers, at every stage of the acquisition process. Rather, the Modern War Institute provides a forum for professionals to share opinions and cultivate ideas. The aim should be to develop implementable and executable analytical frameworks to explain variable approaches to the development of strategically significant emerging S&T programs, to understand the impact of emerging technology on security in the 21st Century, to enable mechanisms for the world to govern the implications of its own ingenuity, and to inform U.S. defense and foreign policies. Harnessing the power of knowledge from member states and partners is essential for NATO to become a trusted partner on AI. How we will maintain our values while we develop new technologies is a critical question to consider. Some states, such as China and those in the Middle East, that have devised new technology strategies are experiencing profound economic and societal transitions. There also is palpable confusion over the technical and strategic distinguishability and dominance of prospective offensive and defensive systems. More Military. The views expressed are those of the authors, and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense. Its almost unreadable. GLOBSEC The majority of venture capital worldwide originates in NATO member states, but the long-standing culture gap between governments and the private sector prevents these resources from being fully utilized. Panel Three: Innovation Ecosystems and Venture Capital’s Role in Allied Defence and Security If NATO wants to fully harness innovation, it needs to address the delay between initial funding and implementation; it is not enough to find novel innovations. The most destructive periods of history tend to be those when the means of aggression have gained the upper hand in the art of waging war.”. In this sense the geopolitics of AI provide NATO, EU, and partners with an opportunity to unite on maintaining high standards and ethical practices for the use of AI. Challenges for implementing AI/ML in combat include its ability be tricked, hacked, or “fuzzed,” and AI/ML also poses risks when it comes to applying the Laws of Armed Conflict. The ability to differentiate or gain insight into such has thus far not been explored or analyzed robustly with respect to strategic implications beyond a technologically-deterministic lens. The risk of ... July 20, 2015. “use fast, fail safely” model, which the US and France have already begun to implement. Anticipating the types of threats that may emerge as science and technology advance, the potential consequences of those threats, and the probability that new and more disperse types of enemies will obtain or pursue them is necessary. There are no upcoming events at this time. Militaries should focus on “explainability” and remember that AI/ML is a “statistical rather than smart” technology. GLOBSEC diskusie k Plánu obnovy priniesli konkrétne riešenia v oblastiach inovácií, digitalizácie aj zelenej obnovy, GLOBSEC odštartoval sériu konzultácií zameraných na priority národného Plánu obnovy SR. Online diskusie s kľúčovými, New GLOBSEC Study Finds that the Willingness To Get Vaccinated Against the COVID-19 Rises with the Trust In Public Authorities, According to the new GLOBSEC Trends 2020, a new report covering the results of opinion, GLOBSEC Is Partnering with NATO Facilitating a Series of Dialogues with Private Sector, Deputy Secretary-General of NATO Mircea Geoană, Assistant Secretary-General for Defence Investment of NATO Camille Grand, Member of European. Thanks JP. One must always be cognizant and skeptical of slipping into a technological deterministic mindset. The future is not a silent mystery. The idea is that small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS), or drones, can collect data at tactical levels, buzzing around … NATO is already investing in technological development even before the procurement stage, which is a big challenge for the organization, but these developments show that NATO is committed to becoming even more adaptable and efficient. new version ofFuture Warfar . Science is and will continue to enable new technological developments becoming accessible and affordable to a larger number of nations and within the grasp of non-state actors: advanced technology is no longer the domain of the few. These are some of the reflections and conclusions expressed by the speakers during the joint. In thinking about the future of warfare, one often encounters two ideological camps: those who prioritize the role of technology and those who don’t. Information about processing of personal data is available in our Privacy Policy. In the context of the future of warfare, the implications of such profound transformations will directly impinge upon the very concept of conflict, its ... Technology offers the promise of economic progress for billions in emerging economies at a speed that would have been unimaginable without the Internet. The firste Future Warfar e Anthology, published in May 1999, received much greater distribution than anyone expected. Although it is impossible to stop countries with different values from using AI as they wish, NATO and its partners can control their own use and develop high standards. Hint! The future of war: Will new technology unleash greater bloodshed than in 1918? In the 19th century the speedy victory of … The Future of Technology in Warfare Warfare and technology make the perfect partners of destruction. Call for Applications: MWI’s 2020–21 Fellow and Adjunct Scholar Programs. Disruptive Technologies and how they are going to impact the emerging conflicts of the 21st century is something which every student of modern warfare is trying to understand. The biggest challenges we face today require deep cooperation, and the resurgence of great power competition further complicates issues that are already difficult to agree on, such as the adoption of new technology. Here are short summaries from the individual panel sessions, presentations and conversations from the event: Showcase Presentation on AI in Warfare with Dr. Herbert Lin The Cambridge History of Warfare Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2005; Rupert Smith, The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World London: Allen Lane, 2005; Max Boot, War Made New: Technology, Warfare, and the Course of History, 1500 to Today Los Angeles: Gotham Press, 2006; and Hew Strachan, The Direction of War: Contemporary Strategy in Historical … But they differ with respect to critical socio-political and economic criteria for national prosperity and competitiveness (e.g., demography, research and development [R&D] infrastructure and sustainment, and resource endowments versus dependence). The public sector seeks to minimise risk while start-ups monetize risk, and the private sector moves forward more quickly with innovative ideas. While they are well-known today for siege weapons, triremes, roads … Trust amongst nations is key for encouraging the maintenance of a regulatory framework that is both stable and ethical. Threats from Russia and China also underline the importance of our values. Follow this page and our social media channels from more detailed summaries of the sessions from this #NATO2030 event which will be published in the upcoming days. Hypersonic missiles. Threats from Russia and China also underline the importance of our values. If we give up our values system, then our position is permanently damaged. The articles and other content which appear on the Modern War Institute website are unofficial expressions of opinion. Showcase Presentation on AI and Big Data with Dr. Ana Isabel Barros Artificial intelligence algorithms designed to engage in air warfare have begun competing with, and perhaps one day will surpass, human military pilots. We know that emerging innovations within cutting-edge science and technology (S&T) areas carry the potential to revolutionize governmental structures, economies, and life as we know it. The Future of Warfare and the Role of New and Emerging Technologies November 25, 2020 14:00 CET. The speed at which technology is changing is daunting, and NATO needs an architecture that acknowledges this reality. New technologies are coming no matter what, should be embraced, and will fundamentally influence the future of warfare. Contemporary analyses often expose the tenuous links or disconnections among mainstream scholarship on international security and war (or strategic) studies, understanding of the defense technological innovation and acquisition processes, and fundamental understanding of the underlying science. Latest. If NATO wants to fully harness innovation, it needs to address the delay between initial funding and implementation; it is not enough to find novel innovations. It is also essential to protect our innovation. This will help to bridge the existing acquisition gap, and to maintain technological investments beyond the initial testing period. A Leader’s Guide to Conducting Research Staff Rides, will transform the technological battlefield, Coercion and Competition: Evaluating American Options for Overcoming Adversaries and Avoiding War, The Twelve Days of Urban Warfare Christmas, Without Firing a Shot: Coercion and Strategy in an Era of Great Power Competition, Announcing MWI’s 2020–21 Fellows and Adjunct Scholars. This column continues the discussion including the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in future warfare. They’re becoming cheaper and more readily available. NATO also has a unique role to play when it comes to demanding that companies and providers are providing products that are truly delivering the best that technology has to offer. As one example of the rhetoric: During a visit to the Kurchatov Institute, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented “This [nanotechnology] could be the key to developing new, modern, and super-effective military systems.²” He later warned of “[a] new round of the arms race is developing in the world,” while calling for the development of Russian science, including nanotechnology, which could be used to develop new types of weapons. If we give up our values system, then our position is permanently damaged. Synthesizing technical research along with social science research is essential to understanding the impact of technology on warfare. The penultimate goal should not be to predict specific new technologies, which is rarely a high-fidelity pursuit except in retrospective cherry-picking of scenarios from favorite science-fiction stories, and one should be skeptical of any one or group that claims thy can do such. The widespread enthusiasm for emerging technologies is reflected not only in official rhetoric but is also codified in respective national technology strategies and the global upswing of dedicated funding. Slovak Republic, [javascript protected email address]/*\"+d+\"\"")/*]]>*/, Copyright © 2008-2020 GLOBSEC | All rights reserved, The speed at which technology is changing is daunting, and NATO needs an architecture that, , and will fundamentally influence the future of warfare, afford to have a strategic distance between the. Military innovations from wooden catapults to nuclear bombs have been transforming the way war is waged since prehistoric humans carved arrows from stones some 10,000 years ago. Get the latest news from GLOBSEC monthly to your inbox. I read this article twice, still i havenot got anyting, Your email address will not be published. Military-related programs in potential peer competitors in Asia (China), in states posing regional security challenges in the Middle East (Iran), in the former Soviet Union (Russia), and in rapidly developing areas (including South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Brazil) offer comparisons for advanced, allied states (U.S., western Europe, Japan, ROK) in order to understand the national meanings, organization, and strategic implications surrounding the development and fielding of emerging technology. Your email address will not be published. Contemporary analyses of these emerging technologies often expose the tenuous links or disconnections among mainstream scholarship on international security, understanding of the military technological innovation and acquisition processes, and fundamental understanding of the underlying science. Science, Technology, and the Future of Warfare. Here’s what’s happening. IN THE PAST, predictions about future warfare have often put too much emphasis on new technologies and doctrines. To better enable new capabilities and to defend the nation against emerging threats in a new security environment, the role of emerging sciences and technology for U.S. defense and foreign policy should be analytically assessed, theoretically-developed, and understood, i.e., how emerging technologies reconcile with or challenge traditional models for national security, e.g., deterrence, offense-defense balance, strategic security, regime theory, and nonproliferation. Spaceplanes and planes that fly themselves. Additionally, deteriorating relations between great powers also affect the private sector. Polus Tower II, Vajnorská 100/B, 831 04 Bratislava The Future Of War. What will weapons look like in the future? Welcome to the future of warfare. Reflections on Sustainable and Green Europe: The Way Towards Global Leadership? How is this lady a professor? Affecting all this in the next three decades will be advances in technology. A remaining challenge is the time it takes to adapt new ideas and technologies since the pace of innovation is accelerating every day. We cannot afford to have a strategic distance between the public and private sector, especially because states like Russia and China do not have this strategic distance. We know that emerging innovations within cutting-edge science and technology (S&T) areas carry the potential to revolutionize governmental structures, economies, and life as we know it. From the private sector standpoint, public buy-in also needs to be prioritised because many in the private sector are not familiar with or don’t feel connected to some of NATO’s initiatives. A new era in military planning is under way. We’re always looking for contributors! Critically and frequently lacking – in comparative social science and humanities & historically-based studies of emerging technologies – is robust technical security studies, including consideration of the role of tacit knowledge and skills that are not readily quantifiable as part of distinguishing the rhetoric of new technologies from the reality. In the future war will be fought primarily by robots, but until then the technology of warfare will continue to advance the capabilities of today's soldier on the battlefield. Understanding these changing paradigms and the implications for modern warfare starts with an awareness of the factors driving the capabilities, understanding the underlying science and the challenges of foreign policy, considering the changing nature of technological progress and the changing nature of conflict, and the relationship between science and security domestically and internationally. In today’s world, recognition of the potential applications of a technology and a sense of purpose in exploiting it are far more important than simply having access to it. he public sector has the ability to serve as, for start-ups whose risks are difficult to measure, government investment promotes confidence among private investors. Weapons that have existed for decades are rapidly developing more effective capabilities, for example, missiles that travel far faster than sound and thus perhaps require defense systems that detect and respond more quickly than humans. Since no single nation is capable of bringing together such diverse expertise on its own, NATO has a key advantage here in the field of science and technology. Russia and China are investing in start-ups at very early stages, so NATO and its partners need invest even earlier. It doesn't even really say anything. Ralphie from ‘A Christmas Story’ could have been the first child in space. Technology is important for all industries, and even non-tech focused companies are becoming much more focused on emerging tech. Panel One: The Future of AI: Bridging the Knowledge and Capability Gap The key challenge for NATO is to stay relevant and to maintain its edge, and this requires maintaining resilience. How, when, where, and in what form the shifting nature of technological progress may bring enhanced or entirely new capabilities, many of which are no longer the exclusive domain of the United States, is contested and requires better analytical tools to enable U.S. assessment, preparation, and response. While the suggestions like those that nanotechnology will enable a new class of weapons that will alter the geopolitical landscape remain unrealized, a number of unresolved security puzzles underlying emerging technologies have implications for international security, defense policy, deterrence, governance, and arms control regimes. Predicting which five weapons will have the greatest impact on the future of combat is a problematic endeavor, as the nature of warfare itself is fluid and constantly changing. How, when, where, and in what form the shifting nature of technological progress may bring enhanced or entirely new capabilities, many of which are no longer the exclusive domain of any single state, is contested and requires better analytical tools to enable assessment and understanding. Finding ways to achieve military effectiveness while not compromising our morals is essential. That is the notion that technology alone, or is even the most important factor, can determine the outbreak or outcome of conflict. There is an ongoing ‘technological war’ occurring that will determine the future of AI. Threats in the international security landscape have never been so diverse or so quick to materialize. When asked what are the current approaches and thinking on means for deterring emerging technologies of concern (beyond cyber) to the U.S., then-USSTRATCOM Commander General Robert Kehler (USAF) responded that “surprise is what keeps me up at night” and cited current uncertainty in how to assess and address emerging and disruptive technologies. Comments will be moderated before posting to ensure logical, professional, and courteous application to article content. The extent to which these emerging technologies may exacerbate or mitigate the defense challenges that states will pose in the future to U.S. and regional interests needs to be examined. Interaction with academia and the private sector is essential to success, especially because much of the innovation we see today is coming from these sectors. Author and Pentagon advisor John Arquilla believes that today’s big weapons systems are wrong for modern battle. : Recap, GLOBSEC Appoints Oscar Sanz-Paris as the Think-tank’s Ambassador for the Financial Services Sector in North America, The Future of Warfare and the Role of New and Emerging Technologies: Recap, Château Béla Central European Strategic Forum 2020, NATO 2030: NATO – Private Sector Dialogues with GLOBSEC, GEOPE – “Geopolitical Europe: Are the EU Member-states Ready for It?”. Critically and frequently lacking – in comparative technical or engineering-based studies of emerging technologies –are consideration of political, historical, institutional, organizational, economic, and social factors. The STO focuses on how to ensure that NATO has AI and Big Data supremacy for decision support by exploiting data and technology to its full potential across the Alliance to enhance effectiveness. The public sector seeks to minimise risk while start-ups monetize risk, and the private sector moves forward more quickly with innovative ideas. In order to ensure that new technologies work for us and not against, cooperation with the private sector and academia is more crucial now than ever. We need to bridge this gap in earlier stages of policy development. The Modern War Institute does not screen articles to fit a particular editorial agenda, nor endorse or advocate material that is published. This initiative will begin with a conference on November 25 th focusing on The Future of Warfare and the Role of New and Emerging Technologies that will bring together experts from the fields of technology, security, and public policy. Dr. Margaret E. Kosal is Associate Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Institute of Technology and Director of the Sam Nunn Security Program (SNSP). The Irregular Warfare Podcast is Looking for a New Team Member! NATO also needs to ensure that the human pa rt of its warfare preparation is being developed, and i nnovation strategy needs to be accompanied by a strategy for integration. On the future of warfare (and technology and people) Published on December 13, 2019 December 13, 2019 • 15 Likes • 6 Comments These S&T areas include robotics and autonomous unmanned system; artificial intelligence; biotechnology, including synthetic and systems biology; the cognitive neurosciences; nanotechnology, including stealth meta-materials; additive manufacturing (aka 3D printing); and the intersection of each with information and computing technologies, i.e., cyber-everything. As the role of technology within warfare continues to increase, it is important to investigate whether or not the consequences of these weapons are being adequately considered. Child in space would not be available for decades yet Privacy policy including from innovative purchasing strategies.... 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