In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. A lot of people think things are. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Pre-performance Lobby events. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. We were as far down to five cooks last year. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. We have become so divided. He pissed off a lot of people. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. That is a very good thing to have. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Theres significant variability among them though. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. And its never going to come back.. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. He cares about the American people.. I quit voting once out of the union.. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. I think it worked out without me.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. I think thats what the world needed. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. 'I Should Start Voting'. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. . Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. Logistically, its a disaster. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Im not even sure what direction were going.. They run the gamut from. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? It will cycle through. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? Im looking at both sides of it. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. We need creative leadership, Miller said. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. That is, until this year. Port Clinton, Ohio. She shook her head at the high price of gas. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. . When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down.
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